Gamasutra is reporting that the new GamerMetrics report from IGN Entertainment is out and that they predict that three games (Halo 3, Madden 07, and Grand Theft Auto IV) will account for 30% of game sales in 2007 all by themselves. 30%!!
A blog on virtual worlds, games, and digital content, from Matt Mihaly
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July 9th, 2007 at 6:08 pm
Adrian Crook
What’s the opposite of Long Tail… Fat Head?
July 10th, 2007 at 1:38 am
Martha
Wow, I had no idea. I suppose that partially explains the cost of the rest of the games….
July 10th, 2007 at 9:36 am
Matt
Yeah, and even then I believe about 90% of retail games lose money.
July 10th, 2007 at 7:48 pm
Psychochild
Matt wrote:
Yeah, and even then I believe about 90% of retail games lose money.
That’s close to the stats I’ve always heard. Games are a hit-driven business, where the big winners make enough money to let the also-rans be made.
Of course, many companies want more profitability, which leads to the conservative approach of supporting the nearly guaranteed successes. Note that all three of those games are sequels to established franchises; due to licensing, Madden is the only game in town now for NFL football video games.
Of course, this means that we’ll see less of the interesting games that can prove to be runaway hits. The Sims is the classic example in games, where the managers didn’t want to spend money on it, but it spawned a new (and hard-to-clone) success. The problem is that it’s hard to do so when it’s your career on the line if you back the wrong project.
That’s one of the reasons I’m such a supporter of indie games. I think we need them in order to take the risks that big budgets and profit statements won’t tolerate. Of course, sometimes the audience won’t tolerate the lack of a big budget.
July 11th, 2007 at 5:51 am
Andrew Crystall
That’s not quite true from what I’ve heard. Only 10% make a profit… and “more than that” break even. (I believe around 12%, but can’t confirm that)
Anyway, the publishers need to work more on ways to fight the long tail, yes.